SpaceShipOne
Correspondent:: dblspace@aol.complex-sex (David Langlois --- Ball serves Baal)
Date: 04 Oct 2004 16:48:27 GMT
--------
It makes me want to quote Queen - "I'm in love with my car" - I feel that good
about SpaceShipOne. When does the lottery begin? Point the way!
David
aka
the Rebi "Slash" Foreskin
(R/4)
Correspondent:: "nu-monet v7.0"
Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 10:31:07 -0700
--------
David Langlois --- Ball serves Baal wrote:
>
> It makes me want to quote Queen - "I'm in love
> with my car" - I feel that good about SpaceShipOne.
> When does the lottery begin? Point the way!
We get to stand in line behind DARPA.
For the next 10 years, every spaceship this guy can
build, and ones 5 times as big, are going to be used
to get satellites and probes into space. They figure
that he costs 1/10th the price of a rocket to do that
stuff.
On the plus side, they are going to subsidize him
until his ears bleed. So by the time it's (public)
commercially available, unlike the SST they will
prolly have a functional business plan, so they will
actually make a profit.
Still, you should say a little prayer for the space
elevator. If *that* sucker gets online, expect to
see modular spaceships the size of the QEII.
Which gives me a hard on.
--
Yah-hah, evil spider woman! I have captured you
by the short rabbits and can now deliver you
violently to your gynecologist for a thorough
extermination.
-- Hong Kong movie subtitle
Correspondent:: König Prüß, GfbAEV
Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 18:01:37 GMT
--------
"nu-monet v7.0" wrote:
> David Langlois --- Ball serves Baal wrote:
> >
> > It makes me want to quote Queen - "I'm in love
> > with my car" - I feel that good about SpaceShipOne.
> > When does the lottery begin? Point the way!
>
> We get to stand in line behind DARPA.
>
> For the next 10 years, every spaceship this guy can
> build, and ones 5 times as big, are going to be used
> to get satellites and probes into space. They figure
> that he costs 1/10th the price of a rocket to do that
> stuff.
>
> On the plus side, they are going to subsidize him
> until his ears bleed. So by the time it's (public)
> commercially available, unlike the SST they will
> prolly have a functional business plan, so they will
> actually make a profit.
>
> Still, you should say a little prayer for the space
> elevator. If *that* sucker gets online, expect to
> see modular spaceships the size of the QEII.
>
> Which gives me a hard on.
>
> --
I like the space elevator; it would short-circuit
all of this Flash Gordon bullshit, and make getting
to space "mundane" (nyuk-nyuk!)
2005 : A handful of additional suborbital companies begin doing test
flights, while the X-Prize winner continues to refine their
system, and begins offering rides to various celebrities and the like.
Collectively, these suborbital outfits make a couple dozen
flights over the course of the year (earning perhaps 30 people their
astronaut wings). SpaceX launches four Falcon Explorers. China
launches a multi-person Shenzhou mission, which lasts nearly a week. The
Space Shuttle does *not* return to flight.
2006 : True commercial suborbital tourist operations begin, and well
over 100 people earn their astronaut wings this year. The price
initially begins at $100,000, but falls by 30% each year for the next 5
years. Suborbital companies also begin profiting from flying
microgravity experiments and launching nanosats and microsats. The
success of the Falcon Explorers -- about 10 flights occur this
year -- gives birth to a whole new class of off-the-shelf smallsats, as
LEO suddenly becomes affordable to universities, small
businesses, and even consortia of non-profits and highschools. SpaceX
and also launches their first Falcon V, carrying Bigelow
Aerospace's 1/3rd scale space-station test article. Two more Shenzhou
flights occur, practicing docking procedures with target
vehicles. The Shuttle is officially mothballed (without having flown
post-Columbia), and American officials are more vigorously
casting about for another way to get to the ISS, in the meantime
continuing to buy Soyuz flights from Russia.
2007 : The boom is now in full swing. Hundreds of suborbital flights
take place, with around 1,000 people earning their astronaut
wings. A competitor (perhaps Microcosm, or perhaps a re-invigorated
Lockmart or Boeing) emerges to challenge SpaceX in providing
cheap orbital launches. Both companies also begin collaborating with
experienced suborbital operators to create orbital vehicles ?
which are now being demanded by both the tourist and governmental
markets. China launches a small Salyut-class station, which is
crewed on a part-time basis.
2008 : Over 2,000 people earn their astronaut wings in suborbital
flights, although the novelty is beginning to fade slightly.
Several new orbital spacecraft enter the market: one or two
privately-developed US vehicles (with substantial governmental backing,
per MM&B), as well as the Russian Klipper (which also has substantial
private backing). The first private orbital spaceflight takes
place, in a 4-person craft launched atop the a semi-reusable vehicle,
which orbits the Earth several times. The ticket price is
initially $5 million per person, but like the suborbital ventures, this
falls by 30% per year for the next five years. Bigelow
launches a small inflatable habitat, which serves as a
temporarilly-inhabited destination for tourism flights. China conducts a
manned circumlunar flight during the Beijing Olympics. This is done with
a modified Shenzhou, and is more of a stunt than a
sustainable advance in their program. Japan beings operation of a small,
unmanned, suborbital VTVL.
2009 : Given the competitiveness, prestige, and strategic advantages
which are increasingly associated with spaceflight, all the
interested governments begin to dramatically accelerate their schedules.
The US conducts its own stunt circumlunar flight; Europe
and Japan intensify their domestic spacecraft development programs;
India pragmatically looks towards purchasing some Russian or US
commercial spacecraft. China expands its space station. Meanwhile, in
the commercial sector, suborbital flights continue to slowly
increase (to around 3,000 people per year), while over a hundred people
make orbital flights, at increasingly reasonable prices.
More companies enter the launch industry, and a new inexpensive
medium-heavylift vehicle (45,000 ? 100,000 lbs. To LEO) enters the
market, its development largely spurred by the MM&B program.
2010 : Using the new medium-heavylift capability, Bigelow launches a
cluster of several inflatable modules, forming the first true
space hotel. Several hundred civilians make orbital spaceflights. Nobody
bothers keeping track of the suborbital ones anymore. China
performs another circumlunar flight, this time using hardware which is
much more suited to the task. India launches its first
astronauts, in a foreign spacecraft mounted atop a domestic ELV.
2011 : In the US, A fully-reusable space ferry commences operation,
capable of shuttling a dozen people to and from orbit, and with
theoretical turnaround times of a few hours. Bigelow's space hotel is
expanded to accommodate them, and nearly a thousand people
orbit the earth this year. A handful of commercial manufacturing
facilities begin orbital operations, making exotic drugs and fiber
optic materials. China and the US conduct brief lunar landings, and
Russia does a circumlunar flight. Japan launches its first
astronauts.
2012 : A true heavylift launch vehicle is developed, capable of
launching over 100,000 lbs into LEO. Additional companies enter the
space hotel & space manufacturing businesses. Thousands of people travel
to and from LEO, and scores of people are orbiting the
Earth at any given moment. Europe launches its first astronauts, while
both Japan and India put up small space stations. China and
the US both construct small, intermittently-occupied lunar bases.
2013 : Bigelow's "Lunar Cycler" is under construction. A suborbital
joyride costs $3,000, while a basic ticket to orbit costs
$150,000. Orbital stays range from $25,000 to $250,000 per day. The
latest and greatest accommodations feature large picture
windows, lunar-equivalent artificial gravity in the living areas, and
sizable zero-gravity recreation rooms. LEO now has an average
population of over 100 hundred people. The US and China expand their
lunar bases, which can now accommodate a dozen people on a
temporary basis. A commercial company lands an automated mining &
manufacturing crawler on the moon, which tests the viability of
constructing lunar photovoltaic farms. The law and politics of lunar
real estate begins to become a rather hot topic.
2014: A long-range suborbital transport begins commercial operations.
The Chinese and American lunar bases are now permanently
occupied by about 20 people each, and a consortium of Russian, Indian,
European, Japanese, and other interested parties begins
construction of their own ?non-aligned? lunar base. The US launches a
Mars fly-by, while China lands on a near Earth asteroid, and
officially claims it as Chinese territory. The Lunar Cycler begins
commercial operations. The fracas over non-terrestrial real
estate continues unabated, and is in danger of inhibiting commercial
investment if it continues much longer.
Correspondent:: Cardinal Vertigo
Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 20:07:16 GMT
--------
König Prüß wrote:
[snip impossibly optimistic space exploration timetable]
That's the least realistic SF I've read in quite a while.
Correspondent:: König Prüß, GfbAEV
Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 20:34:43 GMT
--------
Cardinal Vertigo wrote:
> König Prüß wrote:
>
> [snip impossibly optimistic space exploration timetable]
>
> That's the least realistic SF I've read in quite a while.
Less realistic than sending Stang $30 and
waiting for the Pleasure Saucers?
Correspondent:: "Revi Shankar"
Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2004 21:29:29 -0400
--------
"Cardinal Vertigo" wrote in message
news:U3i8d.13924$Qv5.8712@newssvr33.news.prodigy.com...
> König Prüß wrote:
>
> [snip impossibly optimistic space exploration timetable]
>
> That's the least realistic SF I've read in quite a while.
He forgot the first terist attack in space, too.
Your space station asplode.
Correspondent:: IMBJR
Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 22:09:06 +0100
--------
On Mon, 04 Oct 2004 18:01:37 GMT, in reply to König Prüß, GfbAEV
:
>The fracas over non-terrestrial real
>estate continues unabated, and is in danger of inhibiting commercial
>investment if it continues much longer.
http://www.oosa.unvienna.org/treat/ost/outersptxt.htm
verses
http://www.moonshop.com/
Correspondent:: dblspace@aol.complex-sex (David Langlois --- Ball serves Baal)
Date: 04 Oct 2004 19:45:33 GMT
--------
If you like the idea of a space elevator you'll love the Larry Niven novel
"Rainbow Mars" which features an organic space elevator. Fascinating!
David
aka
the Rebi "Slash" Foreskin
(R/4)
Correspondent:: hellpopehuey@subgenius.com (HellPopeHuey)
Date: 5 Oct 2004 09:36:26 -0700
--------
dblspace@aol.complex-sex (David Langlois --- Ball serves Baal) wrote in message news:<20041004154533.13013.00001127@mb-m21.aol.com>...
> If you like the idea of a space elevator you'll love the Larry Niven novel
> "Rainbow Mars" which features an organic space elevator. Fascinating!
I can't wait to go to the top and throw a beer can and a used condom at Neptune.
--
HellPope Huey
I'll just SEE yer Social Disaffection and raise ya
a simmering case of One Day He Just Exploded, Officer.
"If I were to lose my mind right now
and pick up one of you and dash your head against the floor,
right now and kill you, would that be right?"
- Alan Keyes (2004 Illinois Senate Republican candidate)
"I want you to suck my dick like you think the antidote is in it."
- Chris Rock
Correspondent:: Rev DJ Epoch
Date: 6 Oct 2004 12:21:40 GMT
--------
hellpopehuey@subgenius.com (HellPopeHuey) wrote in
news:8cc8cffc.0410050836.69846e26@posting.google.com:
> dblspace@aol.complex-sex (David Langlois --- Ball serves Baal) wrote in
> message news:<20041004154533.13013.00001127@mb-m21.aol.com>...
>
>> If you like the idea of a space elevator you'll love the Larry Niven
>> novel "Rainbow Mars" which features an organic space elevator.
>> Fascinating!
>
> I can't wait to go to the top and throw a beer can and a used condom at
> Neptune.
>
Careful, Neptune throws back asteroids and calls your parents.
--
The Church of Our Lady of Prepetual Motion
Cathedral, Carwash and Dancehall- Home of the Traci Lords Memorial Brothel
Rev. DJ Epoch - proprietor and janitor
Divine Southern Redneck Yeti Clench Recruitment site: http://revdjepoch.COM
"They can have my penis when they pry it from my cold, dead hands." --
Cardinal Vertigo
"if you stand on my instep, lean into my face with your salami-breathed
bad manners and bellow "HOWYADOIN' THERE, BUCKO?," you ultimately have
no one to blame but YOU for the pineapple suppository."
- HellPope Huey
Correspondent:: washer of kegs
Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 22:19:41 +0200
--------
nu-monet v7.0 wrote:
> David Langlois --- Ball serves Baal wrote:
>>
>> It makes me want to quote Queen - "I'm in love
>> with my car" - I feel that good about SpaceShipOne.
>> When does the lottery begin? Point the way!
>
> We get to stand in line behind DARPA.
>
> For the next 10 years, every spaceship this guy can
> build, and ones 5 times as big, are going to be used
> to get satellites and probes into space. They figure
> that he costs 1/10th the price of a rocket to do that
> stuff.
>
he goes up and then right back down. He might have the altitude but his
horizontal velocity is almost zero.
> On the plus side, they are going to subsidize him
> until his ears bleed. So by the time it's (public)
> commercially available, unlike the SST they will
> prolly have a functional business plan, so they will
> actually make a profit.
At the moment only sir Richard is talking about bank rolling future
development. Hope he, Paul Allen and Barron Hilton team up and finance a
version that could do orbital. That is the next step is it not? Private
enterprise to orbit.
>
> Still, you should say a little prayer for the space
> elevator. If *that* sucker gets online, expect to
> see modular spaceships the size of the QEII.
>
Even with bucky fibers it can not be done. A group of graduates at ERAU a
couple years back tried to do the theoretical work for it but could not
find a reliable way to attach to the ground before it snapped like a guitar
string.
> Which gives me a hard on.
>
Which has nothing in common with the space elevator, or?
Correspondent:: "nu-monet v7.0"
Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 14:22:15 -0700
--------
washer of kegs wrote:
>
> nu-monet v7.0 wrote:
>
> > David Langlois --- Ball serves Baal wrote:
> >>
> >> It makes me want to quote Queen - "I'm in love
> >> with my car" - I feel that good about SpaceShipOne.
> >> When does the lottery begin? Point the way!
> >
> > We get to stand in line behind DARPA.
> >
> > For the next 10 years, every spaceship this guy can
> > build, and ones 5 times as big, are going to be used
> > to get satellites and probes into space. They figure
> > that he costs 1/10th the price of a rocket to do that
> > stuff.
> >
>
> he goes up and then right back down. He might have the
> altitude but his horizontal velocity is almost zero.
>
Right now, they're not looking at his SpaceShipOne as
much as White Knight, which gets SSO up to altitude:
http://www.space.com/news/x37_darpa_040915.html
(5th paragraph)
--
"YOU BELONG TO US NOW!"
"GET DOWN WITH MY SICKNESS!!"
--Kino Beman, brand name
Correspondent:: Cardinal Vertigo
Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 16:26:13 -0500
--------
washer of kegs wrote:
> nu-monet v7.0 wrote:
>
>>David Langlois --- Ball serves Baal wrote:
>>
>>>It makes me want to quote Queen - "I'm in love
>>>with my car" - I feel that good about SpaceShipOne.
>>>When does the lottery begin? Point the way!
>>
>>We get to stand in line behind DARPA.
>>
>>For the next 10 years, every spaceship this guy can
>>build, and ones 5 times as big, are going to be used
>>to get satellites and probes into space. They figure
>>that he costs 1/10th the price of a rocket to do that
>>stuff.
>
> he goes up and then right back down. He might have the altitude but his
> horizontal velocity is almost zero.
>
>>On the plus side, they are going to subsidize him
>>until his ears bleed. So by the time it's (public)
>>commercially available, unlike the SST they will
>>prolly have a functional business plan, so they will
>>actually make a profit.
>
> At the moment only sir Richard is talking about bank rolling future
> development. Hope he, Paul Allen and Barron Hilton team up and finance a
> version that could do orbital. That is the next step is it not? Private
> enterprise to orbit.
Yep. You can expect the development of commercial manned spaceflight to be
very similar to the original development of manned spaceflight. The bar is
in low Earth orbit now, just like it was after the Vostok 1 and Mercury 3
missions in 1961.
NASA money is already being directed toward commercial spaceflight: they
created a "Centennial Challenges" office this summer to set up cash prizes
for milestone achievements. The specific "challenges" haven't been
announced yet, though the payouts under consideration are said to range from
$250,000 to $200 million.
Robert Bigelow also just set up a $50 million prize for the first commercial
seven-passenger orbiter. I'm sure anyone else who cares can Google up a link.