From: nu-monet
Newsgroups: alt.slack
Reply-To: like.excess@sex.org
Date: Mon, Dec 31, 2001
http://www.bostonphoenix.com/boston/news_features/other_stories/documents/02048780.htm
Prophets of doom
Jihad terrorists surprised America on September 11,
but apparently more than one astrologer saw it coming
--
%
There is no nu-monet there is only Zuul.
%
In a year holding a three, or seven,
or five, or nine, or maybe not,
Two things, might be people, or armies,
or buildings,
Or anything really, blades of grass,
or stoats, or crapulous charlatans
spouting mimsy,
Might do something nebulous.
Insert made-up-bit here.
--Generic Nostradamus Quatrain from
"The Guardian"
%
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$ $ $ $ $ ------------S H O W-------------
$ $ $ $ $ $ --------------------------------
$ $ $ $ $ ------------Y O U R-------------
$ $ $ $ $ $ --------------------------------
$ $ $ $ $ -------P A T R I O T I S M------
$ $ $ $ $ $ --------------------------------
$ $ $ $ $ -------------B U Y--------------
$ $ $ $ $ $ --------------------------------
-------------------S U B G E N I U S--------
--------------------------------------------
-----------------------T O D A Y !----------
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http://www.subgenius.com/scatalog.html
--
%
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From: modemac@modemac.com (Modemac)
Hindsight is a lovely thing, isn't it? I've just tossed off an email
to the Boston Phoenix pointing out the fact that *every* major event
in human history, both natural and manmade, has been "predicted" some
astrologer or so-called "psychic." And yet, not once has there ever
been a single case where a successful "prediction" has changed the
course of any of these events. (Except for D-Day -- we all know how
Hitler's belief in astrology led him wildly astray and allowed the
Allies to land at Normandy, because astrology screwed up once again.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: joecosby@mindspring.com (Joe Cosby)
modemac@modemac.com (Modemac) hunched over a computer, typing
feverishly;
thunder crashed, modemac@modemac.com (Modemac) laughed madly, then
wrote:
>
>Hindsight is a lovely thing, isn't it? I've just tossed off an email
>to the Boston Phoenix pointing out the fact that *every* major event
>in human history, both natural and manmade, has been "predicted" some
>astrologer or so-called "psychic." And yet, not once has there ever
>been a single case where a successful "prediction" has changed the
>course of any of these events.
If you think about it, if an astrologer were able to make a succesful
prediction which altered events, then that prediction would have been
an unsuccesful one. If somebody had succesfully predicted the 9/11
bombing and in doing so had averted them, then the 9/11 bombing
wouldn't have occured, and the person wouldn't have succesfully
predicted it.
>(Except for D-Day -- we all know how
>Hitler's belief in astrology led him wildly astray and allowed the
>Allies to land at Normandy, because astrology screwed up once again.)
One of the most succesful intelligence operations in history; the
astrologers fed them the erroneous information intentionally.
--
Joe Cosby
http://joecosby.home.mindspring.com
Skull-Shaped Bong : $12.00
Primo Maui-Grown Bud : $25.00
Watching Teletubbies with Your Buddies : Priceless
Sig by Kookie Jar 5.98d http://go.to/generalfrenetics/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: nu-monet
Modemac wrote:
>
>
> Hindsight is a lovely thing, isn't it? I've just tossed
> off an email to the Boston Phoenix pointing out the fact
> that *every* major event in human history, both natural
> and manmade, has been "predicted" some astrologer or so-
> called "psychic." And yet, not once has there ever been
> a single case where a successful "prediction" has changed
> the course of any of these events...
Hold on and waitasec. Isn't that last argument paradoxical?
If you predict something and it is prevented from happening
it would disprove the prediction anyway.
But moving beyond that into what I think might be new
territory in a discussion of "predicting the future", i.e.
what exactly *is* "predicting the future"? Here are some
possible problems when asserting prescience or the lack
thereof:
1) Probabilities: Not all events have equal probability
of coming to pass. Some are almost certain; whereas some
are evenly divided into maybe happening/not happening; and
some have almost no probability of happening. If you are
able to "macro-" distinguish between the elements ("see the
big picture"), your "predictions" of the future would be
grounded in reason, not the common understanding of psychic
ability. If you were not consciously aware of this
discrimination, you might assume that it was a "psychic"
ability.
"My prediction is that (a) the next US Presidential election
will occur on schedule; (b) that both Presidential candidates
will be white males; (c) the winner will also win the popular
vote. And (d) the stars will prevent any openly gay female
non-Citizen Communist from winning."
The only thing in that statement that is even open for debate
is the "popular vote" bit, which is just a guess, but a reasoned
one; and the causative factor of "the stars."
2) Definition of "Prescience". The assumption of "seeing
into the future" is that the future is like a newspaper
headline, accurate and to the point. But what if your
vision of the future is based solely on the reactions of
Rev. Ivan Stang to *reading* a newspaper? You don't "see"
the paper, you only "see" Stang? Depending on what section
of the paper he has just read (in the future), you might
get a totally different opinion of what is happening in the
world. What if he doesn't read a paper--only sees snippets
of news items he tries to avoid, getting a really distorted
view of the world?
Your vision of the future might be based on any given
"tree" instead of the "forest." As such, there are a
gazillion different perspectives than your native one,
and thus wild and wooly interpretations of what you see.
If you were orbiting the planet, what could you possibly
say was happening on earth? Is the stock market going up?
How the hell should I know?
3) Definition of "Interpretations". This is usually seen
as the paradox of the fortune teller who is so vague that
what is said can be interpreted many different ways.
However, if you ask a person to define their reality,
they almost invariably place themself at the center of
their universe. Everything they hear they interpret in
relation to *themselves*. So if the fortuneteller is a
democrat, and the democrat candidate loses, it is a
"tragedy" to the fortune teller. If they are giving a
"reading" to another democrat, it is likewise a tragedy.
The same "reading" to a republican is good news. If
anything, the republican is curious why the fortune teller
is so downbeat in reporting the "good news".
But you can take it a step further, using the analogy
of the old Chinese tale of "good luck/bad luck", where
everything that his friends said was "bad luck" turned
out to his benefit, and visa versa, leaving him terribly
confused about "what is luck?"
The bad news, your child is about to die. The good news
is that they would have grown up to have been another
Hitler. From *your* point of view does this mean the
death of your child is a *good* thing? Would you still
try to prevent it?
If the fortune teller just tells you to pick up the next
penny you find and hold onto it for dear life, the number
of possible reasons approaches infinity.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: HellPope Huey
In article <3c30acec.47847725@News.CIS.DFN.DE>, joecosby@mindspring.com says...
>Skull-Shaped Bong : $12.00
>Primo Maui-Grown Bud : $25.00
>Watching Teletubbies with Your Buddies : Priceless
Bong made FROM the skull of a Pink you just "farmed": Priceless.
Bud grown for free on the window sill 'cause you moved to Amsterdam: Priceless.
Watching Pat Robertson turn sloooowly on a spit: Priceless.
Watching a TELETUBBY turn sloooowly on a spit: also Priceless.
Watching "Bob" & Connie frug in the buff: Priceless.
Things really fall into place when you use SubGenius Economies of Scale.
HellPope Huey, hellpopehuey@subgenius.com
That's it, pick out the cashews,
then bitch about the remaining peanuts
"You have the luxury of not knowing what I know."
- "A Few Good Men"
"To err is human.
To forgive is not our policy."
- MIT Assassins' Guild
I have too many good anuses ahead of me
to spend my life in a cigar factory!
- Peggy Hill, in "Spanish'
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: nu-monet
Joe Cosby wrote:
>
> If you think about it, if an astrologer were able to
> make a succesful prediction which altered events,
> then that prediction would have been an unsuccesful
> one...
A few more thoughts on the subject. Alternatively, if
the astrologer's predictions were *flawless*, as in
"Twilight Zone-no-matter-what-you-do-it-will-happen",
then it comes down to the old Xtian "predestination"
vs. "foreordination" argument.
Of the two, I prefer foreordination, because you can
truthfully tell the future by saying, "You're gonna
die." The when and how is up to you, but you *will*
die. Even if it takes 100 years.
Predestination says "You're gonna die because you're
a bastard and God hates you. Whereas that guy you
hate, he's gonna live, because God like him."
The Moslems, for their part, go the opposite way, in
that they *accept* the notion that the prediction will
be true, but assert that the fortune teller goes to
extraordinary lengths to deceive you anyway. "You
should wear a hat when you visit the Sultan" actually
means that your decapitated head will look better with
a hat on it, after the Sultan is offended by the
impertinence of your wearing a hat in his presence.
It's a business. (See 'Nostradamus' .sig, below.)
--
%
There is no nu-monet there is only Zuul.
%
In a year holding a three, or seven,
or five, or nine, or maybe not,
Two things, might be people, or armies,
or buildings,
Or anything really, blades of grass,
or stoats, or crapulous charlatans
spouting mimsy,
Might do something nebulous.
Insert made-up-bit here.
--Generic Nostradamus Quatrain from
"The Guardian"
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Modemac
On Mon, 31 Dec 2001 12:20:28 -0700, nu-monet
wrote:
>Hold on and waitasec. Isn't that last argument paradoxical?
>If you predict something and it is prevented from happening
>it would disprove the prediction anyway.
Reply for both you and Joe: If the course of these events were changed
because of the predictions of an astrologer (or other fortune teller),
then surely there would be some mention of it in the history books,
somewhere. Even the books published by and for astrologers (at least
the ones that I know of) don't list such-and-such an event and state
as a historical fact: "Because of the readings of Joe Mama the Fortune
Teller, General Musharef was able to devise a successful strategy that
led him to victory in battle."
--
First
Online Church of "Bob"
http://www.modemac.com/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Modemac
On Mon, 31 Dec 2001 18:26:10 GMT, joecosby@mindspring.com (Joe Cosby)
wrote:
>>(Except for D-Day -- we all know how
>>Hitler's belief in astrology led him wildly astray and allowed the
>>Allies to land at Normandy, because astrology screwed up once again.)
>One of the most succesful intelligence operations in history; the
>astrologers fed them the erroneous information intentionally.
Or so the astrologers say. Again, I don't remember reading any
historical accounts of how one of Hitler's astrologers was actually a
double agent.
--
First
Online Church of "Bob"
http://www.modemac.com/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: nu-monet
Modemac wrote:
>
> Reply for both you and Joe: If the course of these
> events were changed because of the predictions of an
> astrologer (or other fortune teller), then surely there
> would be some mention of it in the history books,
> somewhere.
Well, again, this doesn't really go to dispute your
arguments against fortune tellers, but there was a
very well-established tradition in the Roman Army for
various sacrifices and divinations to be made for
commanding generals before battle.
(Usually the omens and portents were negative, just
up until the battle proper, when all of a sudden they
would become favorable.)
And there were a few occassions when the situation was
so incredibly rotten that even the dimmest of the
prognosticators advised against it--but is predicting
the *obvious* alternative just as valid as predicting
the obscure outcome? What if you are a Cassandra,
always telling the truth that *nobody* believes?
You've seen a nail and marble board, where the marbles
falling through the pyramid-shaped configuration of
nails create a close approximation of the standard
distribution (bell-shaped) curve? If a fortune teller
predicts that the marbles will make a bell-shaped curve,
have they fortold the future? Or are they only verified
as fortune tellers when they fortell a *negative* bell-
shape, as improbable as it would be?
Could you imagine going to a fortune teller and being
told that you are a boring and repetitive person, who
will do that very evening about the same things that
you have done for the past few years, following the
same dull patterns; and that you will live the rest of
your fairly dull life without any really magnificant
ups or downs; and that you will be forgotten 5 years
after you are buried. You will never win the lottery
jackpot, or sail the seven seas, or see most of what
the world has to offer, or do much of damn anything,
and SHIT are you BORING, GET THE HELL OUT OF MY TENT!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: joecosby@mindspring.com (Joe Cosby)
nu-monet
feverishly;
thunder crashed, nu-monet
wrote:
>Modemac wrote:
>
>Could you imagine going to a fortune teller and being
>told that you are a boring and repetitive person, who
>will do that very evening about the same things that
>you have done for the past few years, following the
>same dull patterns; and that you will live the rest of
>your fairly dull life without any really magnificant
>ups or downs; and that you will be forgotten 5 years
>after you are buried. You will never win the lottery
>jackpot, or sail the seven seas, or see most of what
>the world has to offer, or do much of damn anything,
>and SHIT are you BORING, GET THE HELL OUT OF MY TENT!
>
Tough love astrology. I want some of this.
Will she hit me with a pack of tarot cards too if I've been very very
naughty?
--
Joe Cosby
http://joecosby.home.mindspring.com
Logic:
A tool used by clever people to obscure the shriekingly obvious
Sig by Kookie Jar 5.98d http://go.to/generalfrenetics/
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: joecosby@mindspring.com (Joe Cosby)
nu-monet
feverishly;
thunder crashed, nu-monet
wrote:
>
>It's a business. (See 'Nostradamus' .sig, below.)
Or what if you had a super-computer that could track the position of
every particle in a system and calculate it's future state at any
time.
It could track every particle in your brain, work out those particle's
future position mathematically, and from that decide what you were
going to do.
So say I give you a ball and let you decide whether or not to drop it.
the computer can predict whether or not you will, before you even know
what you're going to do.
So let's say further that we have the computer show you what you're
going to do, and let's say you decide to do exactly the opposite of
what the computer tells you.
If the computer tells you you're going to drop the ball, do you?
--
Joe Cosby
http://joecosby.home.mindspring.com
Doing my part to piss off the Christian Right
Sig by Kookie Jar 5.98d http://go.to/generalfrenetics/