From: revjim@strangegames.com (Reverend Jim)
...is overextending itself. Anyone with a fair grounding
in history
can therefore work out what more or less is going to
happen over the
next fifty years. Think of an England more than, say,
of a USSR or a
Rome.
This is a fascinating time. Civilizations in decline
are the most
fertile ground for new ideas.
Discuss.
Your Reverend Jim
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Subject: Re: America...
From: nu-monet <nothing@succeeds.com>
Well, let me throw in a strange element. A few years
ago, an 'economics historian' conducted a staggeringly
complex and detailed analysis of economics and history
to try to see if there was any statistical correlations
out there that could be made about the rise, prosperity,
degeneration or collapse of civilizations and nations.
He was looking for some slightly noticeable factor or
factors that might be indicative of trends in a nation
or civilization. Nothing glaring, just suggestive.
He found only one thing. One thing that indicated if
a civilization or nation was rising, prospering,
declining or collapsing. But it was like a universal
truth. And no other factor or factors seemed to make
any correlation worth notice.
Now, being a good scientist and statistician, he didn't
believe it for a minute. So he spent the next five
or
so years trying to disprove his theory. These efforts
actually resulted in far more effort than his original
research, but were conclusive. There is one, and only
one factor, in determining the health of a society.
A 100% correlation:
Mining.
Societies or civilizations that are opening new mines
are either rising or prospering. When they only mine
existing mines, they are degenerating, and when they
give up mining altogether, they are on the decline to
eventual destruction.
Why? Because every aspect of mining is reflective of
a
society's, or nation's, or even an entire civilization's
way of doing business. Mines employ *both* the "trickle
down" theory *and* the "prosperity from the
bottom up"
theory of economic growth. They also create a whole
bunch of support industries, to support the miners and
the mine; and their ore product creates refinement
industries, to improve on their raw product. And they
require complex logistical support from their government,
including transportation schemes, labor, taxes and fees.
The are the most complete microcosm of an economy ever
found, and the only one that is so inclusive.
Now I mention this only to put perspective on how you
think the state of the government is. And because the
US is a place that (over time) evolves and mutates its
government to new and different things, it may be too
broad to apply to a particular (in this case Republican)
government. I would call it a "macro" indicator.
An appropriate "micro" indicator, and a fairly
reliable
one, is what I call the "government 'efficiency'
ratio".
This one also seems to have some bearing in history,
and
it is simple enough ratio:
what a government promises : what a government delivers
If a government promises only a little, and delivers,
then
it *will not* be overthrown. (a ratio, let's say, of
1:1)
If a government promises a lot, but does not deliver,
then
it *will* be overthrown. (let's say 10:1)
Ironically, it does not matter *what* the government
is
promising! If the ratio is low, it will survive. If
it is
high, the government will fall.
(I might mention this in light of the theory that "a
people
always get the kind of government they want"; for
example,
though China was regularly invaded every 200-odd years
for
almost a millenia, after a generation or two, their
invaders
became "Chinese"; doing everything the Chinese
way.)
discuss enough?
--
*
"No one is safe." -- nu-monet
*
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Subject: Re: America...
From: nu-monet <nothing@succeeds.com>
Rev. Squid Kid wrote:
> >
> So, then, we are doomed to failure. Can ever hope
to
> COMPLETELY wipe out terrorism forever?
N.B.: Just yesterday they lost two governorships.
Unless they
do something terribly P.R. soon, with the war or something
else
*noticeable*, they are going to take a big hit in the
next
elections. I personally think that they are too paranoid
about
releasing information, and it will cost them dearly.
--
*
"No one is safe." -- nu-monet
*
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Subject: Re: America...
From: König Prüß, GfbAEV <saurkraut@weinerschnitzle.com>
Reverend Jim escrivened:
>...is overextending itself. Anyone with a fair
grounding in history
>can therefore work out what more or less is going
to happen over the
>next fifty years. Think of an England more than,
say, of a USSR or a
>Rome.
Yeah, could be like the end of the British Empire, or Weimar Republic precursing the rise of the Third Reich. I don't think that it's so much a parallel with the British for the reason of the US having a Navy that could incinerate most of the land surface. On the other hand, this is a time of structural readjustment, we feel the tectonic plates of socio- political entities shifting which are shaking atiquated nation states to their fundaments. The UN yesterday again issued a pronouncement on the perils of unchecked population growth, stating that 2050 could see a World population of over 10 billion, which would certainly aggravate existing political and economic arrangements. The UN Law of the Sea Commission some few years back had a conference on undersea mining, the two main factions were asserting that the riches below the World's oceans belong to all to share, and alternately that whoever has the technology to retreive the mineral wealth is entitled to profit from their efforts. The developed nations of the World have a fair amount of consumer durables such as cars, refrigerators, TeeVees, et cetera; thus, the big potential markets of the World are in the lesser developed countries. There is much consternation amongst the hi-tech workers in the developed countries over seeing their cushy jobs being done better and cheaper by human rights violators who are willing to use sweat shops, child labor, and prison labor to benefit the fat cat multinational corporations with interlocking directorates whose annual cashflow exceeds the national budgets of many legitimate nation states. One funny thing that President Dubya recently said was that some of the Global Corporations will have to choose sides in the upcoming conflict against the Evil Ones of the World; could it be that we will see Dubya down at the next World Trade Organization protest. or has he just shot himself in the foot yet again?
The big issue is what to do with all of the surplus
labor? Corporations run to suit themselves, expanding
or downsizing to suit their needs or to fit their whims.
And if the suplus labor pool is not satisfied to stand
around with their collective thumb up their bum, the
company thugs are always their to beat them into submission
or exterminate the corporate evil if the mass of misfit,
unkempt, smelly, unemployed illegal alien labor cannot
be mesmerized by the techno clack and whine of La Vida
Loca Lambada.
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Subject: Re: America...
From: König Prüß, GfbAEV <saurkraut@weinerschnitzle.com>
They will never stop terrorism. What makes governments
goverments is their
LEGAL monopoloy on violence and violent coercion; but
governments do not
have an abosolute lock on recourse to violence. So,
the long and the short of it,
jump if you are feeling froggy.
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Subject: Re: America...
From: nu-monet <nothing@succeeds.com>
But violence is just *one* course. The ratio is an
absolute.
If the government promises much, but does not deliver,
then
it will fall. This may be by violence, then again,
perhaps
violence is unneccesary to make a government fall.
However, you are essentially correct. Governments should
never
promise things that have no concrete, observable delivery.
Compare the "anti-terrorist" promise with
the "anti-Jew" promise
made by the Nazis: the typical German on the street
*was* aware
that there were fewer Jews walking around. Ergo, "efficiency."
Who will be aware of fewer "terrorists"?
What the hell does a
"terrorist" look like? Should I believe the
government when
they say there are "fewer terrorists"? If
there are still
"terrorist" attacks, then has the government
FAILED?
A similar problem will be if they say they are "winning
the war".
Even soldiers won't believe they are winning unless
you prove it.
Territory must be taken. Enemy bodies must be seen.
Destruction
must be witnessed. And most of all, they must *believe*
that
they know *about* how much hurt the enemy is putting
on them,
and that *it* is not as bad as what *they* inflict on
the enemy.
Governments rise and fall with the ratio of "efficiency",
what they promise vs. what they deliver.
--
*
"No one is safe." -- nu-monet
*
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Subject: Re: America...
From: König Prüß, GfbAEV <saurkraut@weinerschnitzle.com>
Well, governments might fall without violence, but
it seems that they cannot stay
in power without violence.
Some of the ominous indicators and items locally are
a sharp increase in street crime and homocides in Washington,
DC. Also, FEMA has set up a local base at an "undisclosed
location." There were some vids of an air-tight
warehouse where biologicals are dealt with, also at
an "undisclosed location." But FEMA is preparing
for "mass casualties" and domestic control
seems to be slipping. The stated reason for the spike
in crime is that with so many cops being pulled off
to guard vital gov't infrastructure, there is no police
presence on the street and in the 'hood. Gun sales
have surged. Things are proceeding according to plan.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if DC looks like one
big Waco.
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Subject: Re: America...
From: mshotz@aol.comnospam (James T. Rex King of the
Monsters)
>N.B.: Just yesterday they lost two governorships.
Unless they
>do something terribly P.R. soon, with the war or
something else
>*noticeable*, they are going to take a big hit in
the next
>elections. I personally think that they are too
paranoid about
>releasing information, and it will cost them dearly.
No, its just that there is no information they can give
as they have no clue
whats going on!
Antrax: six differnet Bush Admin people tell six differnt
lies about what is
going on.
War In Afghanistan: Its obvious that its not going well
becuse if it was, all
teh services would be stepping over each other to take
the credit!
Terror Threat in US: Ashcroft has been telling us that
"more attacks can happen
any day now! Any Day!" But when Gov. Davis (a Democrat
and one who openly
fought the Bushies on Energy) posted guards on his major
bridges based on infor
the FBI gave him, Ashcroft say they is no threat!
Lets face it, the Bushes are in over their heads here.
The only one of them
with half a brain (Powell) is being kept on a very short
leash adn is out of
the inner circle of Presidential Advisers.
MSHOTZ: The Post Post Modern Man
"God made man, but a monkey supplied the glue!"
"Jocko-Homo" DEVO
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Subject: Re: America...
From: nu-monet <nothing@succeeds.com>
No argument. P.R.=Public Relations, something they
had better
learn in a hurry, because they are *really* fucking
up, both
in real terms *and* in presentation, as you exampled.
On a completely unrelated note: Both Charles Nelson
Reilly
*and* Abe Vigoda are STILL alive! Be afraid, be very
afraid.
--
*
"No one is safe." -- nu-monet
*
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